For quite some time now anxious investors whom hold large portfolio's filled with LLLL.coms have been debating whether or not there will be an increase or decrease in drops. Some people believe that their will be an increase due to the larger than average purchase of domain names the last month of the countdown. Further, the quality of those domains was quite poor. However, others strongly disagree stating that those last domains were purchased by long term investors, and no way would they just let their domains drop. Below we've decided to give a few points of view from the "drops will be decreasing" side. We've chosen two domainer's that are well known in the industry and whom specialize in LLLL.coms.
The Graph below is by our friend Ergo on Namepros.
Ergo has been tracking the number of domain drops and he see's a slowing down in drop counts.
Number of drops in May increased in comparison with April. But it means nothing currently. General tendency is decreasing number of drops. When it will be close to zero - difficult question.
What I think is that:
1. Currently I don't see the hype as it was in January
2. Even considering number of drops in May is greater than in April (slightly) prices are stable and some categories of LLLL.coms increased slightly in price.
3. When all LLLL.coms will be in hands of deliberate LLLL.com investors - number of drops will decrease considerably. This will happen IMHO when one full year after buyout time will pass.
Main fears of LLLL.com investors are that we will see too many drops when it comes to the domains that were registered last in September and October 2007. I don't share these fears.
1. In general number of registered domains in September and October was not much bigger than other months.
2. Majority of these names were already flipped to the hands of other (I think long-time) investors. If several thousands were not yet flipped then they are already in the hands of deliberate LLLL.com investors that know what they hold.
3. If these names will be dropping by hundreds on daily basis (
but I don't think this will happen) I think that I and many other investors are ready to invest their $$$$ to buy them cheeeeeeeaaaaaap
Then reseller price may temporally decrease for 2-3 months and after that we will see new OMG price level.
Below are a few of Ergo's sites....
calling cards | japanese used cars exporters | Real Estate NY | japanese used cars
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Fellow domainer Italian Dragon agrees with Ergo that LLLL.com drop rate is declining.
Italian Dragon (Lorenzo) The Domain Industry as seen by Italian Dragon
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